Nothing To Say

Here Comes Everybody - Or Not

The second part of this post is about Clay Shirky's great new book Here Comes Everybody. The first part is about a phenomenon I see too often in social tools/sites/services: how many of them require way too much effort on the part of early users or mass adoption before the average user can realize much value. That's where the "Or Not" part of Here Comes Everybody fits in.

 

I used to work for social bookmarking and tagging site del.icio.us and one of its great features was that it was useful even if you were the only person in the world using it - it was a better bookmarking system, had tags, was accessible from any computer anywhere, etc.  It got even better when lots of people used it, and you could find out what was currently popular among users, or how other people described a site.  But too often I see startups that count on something along the lines of "IF everybody downloads this plug-in and THEN they all start describing and marking up all the things they like, THEN we'll have a great service for people who want to discover new things like that."  There needs to be a lot more focus on the value that early users get from the system, or it may never grow to critical mass. Robert Scoble has some related thoughts here .   

 

Clay Shirky does a great job explaining "the power of organizing without organizations" in his new book. In keeping with the theme, here's an interesting link from Summize that shows the overall sentiment on the book (as of this writing) from 8 Amazon Reviewers and 47 bloggers. One of the main themes is that things that used to be hard (like organizing, helping, donating, etc.) are now ridiculously easy. He explains the origins of Wikipedia and how "publish then filter" was a critical decision that led to its success, and explains how the Power Law Distribution applies there and elsewhere. Clay is dry and funny and usually dead on - a sample quote: "Fame is simply an imbalance between inbound and outbound attention - more inbound arrows than outbound."  Is all this talk about Here Comes Everybody real? When Comcast starts tracking customer service based on Twitter and Blog Posts, it's pretty clear that things are changing.     Here Comes Everybody is a must read for anyone interested in understanding what's going on and why.   

Proud Sponsor of the Olympic Torch Relay

Just saw this in my junk mail folder that arrived Monday - now I can understand that Samsung locked up its sponsorship a long time ago, and can even respect that they're staying committed to it in the face of all the uproar.    But maybe they should have held back on the outbound email campaign to text "TORCH" to 72579 landing the same day that the torch arrived in San Francisco.  It's not obvious what the best approach is after spending a reported $16 million on a sponsorship, but from an individual perspective, torchbearer Majora Carter did a good job of protesting/supporting at the same time. 

Bigger than Bebo? MyYearbook??

According to Hitwise, our portfolio company MyYearbook.com is bigger than Bebo in US unique visitors, and Compete ranks their US monthly visits higher than Bebo, hi5, LinkedIn, Tagged, Friendster, Xanga and Ning.  I've had the pleasure of working with Geoff Cook and the team for a while now, and it's great to see them starting to get the recognition they deserve.   

Top Ten TEDTalks

As TED2008 is kicking off today, I thought I'd share my list of top ten TED presentations. I've been attending TED for 15 years, and did some work for the TED Conference back when the first TEDTalks were released in June 2006, and it's amazing to see how well they've been received. Over 15 million people have viewed over 30 million TEDTalks, with 3 million viewed in January or 100,00 per day. So here are my top ten in no particular order:

 

JJ Abrams - the creator of LOST talks about inspiration and the role of mystery.

 

Larry Lessig - in his incredible presentation style, he makes a strong argument about copyright and creativity and society.

 

Jeff Skoll - the first President of eBay talks about his incredible life after eBay.

 

Dan Gilbert - provides insight into happiness, both synthetic and otherwise.

 

Eva Vertes - this amazing student cancer researcher shows the power of youth, dedication and fresh perspective.

 

Jeff Han - one of the best technology demos ever given.

 

Tony Robbins - I didn't think he'd click at TED but he knocked it out of the park.

 

Seth Godin - he's great as usual, and his marketing insight from this 2003 talk will remind you how far ahead of the curve he is.

 

Hans Rosling - one of the first TEDTalks released, and still one of the best with world-class data presentation and enthusiasm.

 

Majora Carter - completely inspiring personal story and incredible presentation some have said is as good as Steve Jobs.

 

Bonus TED Talk

 

Chris Anderson in 2002, as the brand new Curator of TED, introduced himself to a skeptical audience, and articulates his passion, authenticity and vision, a key moment in moving TED forward and to the next level.

 

So which TEDTalks are on your list?

 

It's also a time for change, as this is the last TED conference in Monterey, CA, and TED2009 and beyond will be held in Long Beach, CA.  I had a chance to see Richard Saul Wurman today, one of the founders of TED who hasn't attended since he sold the conference.   Here's a history he wrote about the beginnings of TED - it's come a long way since 1984.   

Video Inflection Points

There's been a lot happening lately in the online/offline video world in the last few months, for example:

 

1 - The writer's strike  was big news and was resolved after 100 days, but it only seemed to accelerate the demand for alternatives, and online video content was there to deliver. This survey shows how overall US visits to online video sharing sites between Dec '06 and Dec '07 rose from 33% to 48% of total internet users, with strong increases across the age and income demographics that advertisers desire.

 

 

2 - The TV/Internet connection is finally starting to happen, especially with digital movie/tv rentals and purchases. Last year Amazon released their service Unbox, and then they announced a marketing partnership with Tivo so that Series 3 owners could have their Amazon purchase/rentals delivered to their Tivo/TV . Last year Apple TV  was announced to unusually tepid (for Apple) reviews, but they just announced a software upgrade, and now both the Amazon/Tivo and AppleTV solutions are really strong, with a quality experience that can be driven fully from the TV and the remote. Comcast has announced a portable TV/DVR for 2009, Neflix is working on set top boxes and partnerships with LG and beyond , most XBOX/PS3/Wii game consoles are connected to TV's and video capable, not to mention Joost, Media Center/Vista equipped PCs and more - so there are LOTS of ways to get video into the home onto the TV outside of YouTube and Cable/Satellite providers.

 

I think the winners will be driven by ease of use/interface, and they'll leverage existing physical connections to the TV and existing billing relationships. I also expect to see rentals, and eventually ad supported free rentals, as a larger opportunity than digital purchases, since disk space is cheap but still limited and too precious to store infrequently watched movies. Apple's done a great job with iTunes movie rental portability to iTouch/iPhone/iPod mobile devices, and I really like the best of both worlds approach from Fox/Apple where a DVD purchase includes a free digital version for iTunes.

 

3 - In the High Definition DVD wars, Blu-Ray won and HD-DVD is gone after knockout punches from Warner Bros, Target, Netflix and Wal-mart. Now the industry can get behind a standard and move forward, but I think the real news is that consumers don't seem to care yet (except for those who already bought $1,000 HD DVD players). Now they'll see if they can recapture the momentum they should have had years ago, and if they can get people excited enough to repurchase content they already own in a new format, just like they did with CD's and first generation DVD's.

 

Each of these is interesting on its own, but together they seem to be part of a larger trend and an acceleration towards the way consumers will enjoy their video in the future.

 

Why Travelers Should Use Yapta

Because it saves you time and money.   I just received a $759 travel voucher on a flight that Yapta was tracking for me, and it only took 3 minutes on the phone with the airline.    No wonder Yapta was named one of Time Magazine's Top 50 Web Sites in 2007 and 2008 Consumer Product of the Year by the Washington Technology Industry Association.   

BigSwerve and Lijit

Today it was announced that our portfolio company BigSwerve has been acquired by Lijit. We've always felt that comments were underutilized, and this combination will help unlock the value in the 400 million comments from over 3 million authors that BigSwerve has captured.  BigSwerve founder Raj Bala was one of the early visionaries around comment innovation, and we've learned a lot together along the way.  I've had the pleasure of knowing Todd Vernon and the Lijit team for a while now, and  I'm happy that First Round is now a shareholder, and I'm also a satisfied Lijit user, and on both fronts I'm looking forward to seeing the products integrated.

The Two Best LinkedIn Invitations Ever...

First from Charlie O'Donnell: 

 

Chris,

 

I'm using LinkedIn to keep in touch with my professional network.

 

Because you're a PERSON, I'm going to take two seconds to write a mildly creative and entertaining invitation, even though you know what this whole thing is about and any text is probably unnecessary.

 

So link to me, and then I'll troll your network for opportunities, contacts, dates, etc... all the while getting your permission at every step. Pretty soon, your network will realize that I'm a far more interesting person than you are, and one by one, they'll probably unlink you. Then, you'll wonder where all your friends went and you'll only have yourself, Reid Hoffman, Sequoia and Greylock to blame. :)

 

Of course, I'm joking...

 

Obviously, you can't blame the VC's.

 

- Charlie

 

Then from Steve Jurvetson:

 

Chris:

 

Linky, linky?

 

Hope all is well,

 

Steve

 

Amazon heading to Philadelphia

Jeff Barr of Amazon Web Services is coming to Philadelphia on November 7th, and cool stealth startup Invite Media is hosting what looks to be a great event - check it out and sign up.   

LinkedIn vs. Facebook

I've been thinking a lot lately about my two favorite social networks - LinkedIn and Facebook.

 

LinkedIn is where I've invested the most time - it's my main social network (at least so far), and it's a good representation of who I am professionally, what I've done, and who I know. I've spent significant time over the last few years cultivating and building my network there, and have over 800 connections . I find it to be a great tool - especially for finding people, finding out about people for references, for job postings, and keeping up with professional changes in my network. The LinkedIn Toolbar for Outlook is incredibly useful - it shows the LinkedIn profile and connections for every person who sends me an email, offers 1-click invitations to connect, and has a "grab" tool to highlight contact info in an email and turn it into an Outlook Contact. We even use LinkedIn as the recommended way to contact us here at First Round Capital.

 

But I think I’m in the minority in my LinkedIn usage and the utility I find there, and that a lot of people feel the way David Pogue does when he asks, LinkedIn….Why? That gets to the fact that a lot of the usage is around forwarding requests for introduction, and there can be a big imbalance between the "hunters and the prey" in that scenario.

 

On the other side, there's Facebook. I've had a Facebook profile since they opened up beyond .edu-only members, mostly just to test it and see what all the buzz was about. But the real shift happened this summer soon after they launched the Facebook Platform - F8. All of a sudden, I was getting multiple invitations to connect every few days from interesting people I knew and liked. I continue to find it useful, engaging and fun, and now have over 350 Facebook friends - and really get a kick out of tracking what people are up to, learning more about them, and trying out new applications. One "aha" moment happened last week, when I marked my first birthday as a Facebook member and got more birthday wishes there than in real life.

 

I think the keys are that Facebook uses a person's real identity - not just a screen name, and it's easy, fun and you're encouraged to update what you're doing. The Newsfeed is a really important feature as well - an easy, scalable way to track what's going on with your friends, what new applications they're using, and who knows who - an easy way to track your "Social Peripheral Vision."   

An important question to ponder is how many social networks people will engage in - and how that will evolve over time.  Brad Feld talks about the early days of his social graph, from his first Compuserve email lists, to his AIM Buddy List, to his contacts on Outlook in this post.  Joshua Schachter has a great post on Social Spring Cleaning where he discusses the idea of switching social networks as a way to cleanse your contact list. One way to avoid having to do that is to try to accept connections only with people you know - or as needed to click the "Remove Friend" button on Facebook, or use the fairly-well-hidden Break Connections feature on LinkedIn.

 

What's missing from LinkedIn? A first easy step would be to add user images - even company logos would help it feel less cold compared to Facebook. Another would be a LinkedIn newsfeed - they do that partially on the site and by email, but it should be available anytime and in real-time. But for me the real killer app would be an "Introduction" feature where LinkedIn would have a simple way to click on two contacts to make a professional introduction.

 

So I'm happily living in both worlds - and like Jeff Pulver I'll continue to have "Dual Citizenship" for the foreseeable future. I'm also doing heavy research with my son for an upcoming Webkinz vs. Club Penguin post soon.